Economic Insights by Dr. Ted Jones

Big turnout at the Economic Outlook & Networking event! Dr. Ted Jones shared a fast-paced, insightful look at Houston and Texas’ CRE markets, covering local rebounds, job growth, capital trends, and the 2027–2029 buying window. His message: stay curious, follow the data, and stay creative.

Key takeaways from the event:

·       Houston > national trendlines: Local CRE activity is rebounding faster than many markets; several 2024 sales metrics are tracking at or above 2019 levels.

·       People = power: Texas is a top U-Haul growth state, and Houston ranks among the most attractive destinations for younger talent, fueling long-term demand across sectors.

·       Jobs resilience: Houston’s pandemic job losses were shallower and recovered faster than the U.S. overall; jobs remain the #1 driver of CRE.

·       Capital thaw: Last year’s “capital freeze” is easing. Lenders are re-entering, but underwriting is disciplined—cash, creativity, and realistic pricing win.

·       Cap rate math matters: With ~100 bps expansion vs. pre-’20 norms, value expectations must reset for both sellers and buyers.

·       Generational buying window ahead: 2027–2029 could be one of the best opportunities in decades to acquire quality assets at value pricing.

Sector snapshots:

·       Industrial & necessity retail: Remain standouts; Houston industrial values have held up well.

·       Multifamily: Class A is digesting new supply; B/C remains resilient.

·       Office: Still challenged, with motivated sellers and opportunities for creative repositioning (lab, storage, education, mixed-use).

·       Adaptive reuse: Office-to-residential, education-in-retail, and logistics conversions are producing real wins through timing and creativity.

Networking with fellow real estate leaders was equally valuable, sharing insights on deal flow, lender sentiment, and buyer expectations helps keep a real-time pulse on the market and emerging opportunities.