CCIM Houston’s 2026 Outlook

The first CCIM Houston/Gulf Coast Chapter luncheon of 2026 drew a full house, where Dr. Daniel Oney, Research Director at the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University, delivered a comprehensive economic and real estate forecast for Texas and Houston.

His message? While growth is moderating from the rapid post-COVID surge, Texas, especially Houston, continues to outperform the national economy and shows resilience across multiple sectors.

Here are the key takeaways from his presentation:

Texas & Houston Growth

• Growth has cooled from the post-COVID boom but is normalizing.

• Texas is still outpacing the U.S. economy.

• Population growth remains the foundation of this growth, with Houston as a major contributor.

Population Trends

• International migration now drives over half of Texas’ population growth.

• About 65% of Houston metro’s recent growth stems from international migration.

• Over the last five years, Houston added approximately 700,000 residents, making up nearly 31% of Texas’ total growth.

Construction Costs & Inflation

• Construction costs spiked during COVID and supply chain disruptions.

• Price increases have flattened but remain elevated.

• Inflation has decreased from its peak but is still above pre-COVID levels of around 2%.

Multifamily Sector

• Statewide, the multifamily market is oversupplied, especially in Austin and Dallas.

• Houston’s multifamily market is healthier but faces rent growth pressures and frequent concessions.

Office Market

• The office sector remains challenged due to hybrid work reducing space demand.

• Texas markets fare better than many others nationwide.

• Limited new office construction is forecasted (about 3 million square feet statewide in 2026).

• Surplus space is gradually being absorbed.

Retail Sector

• Retail growth is slow and steady.

• Grocery-anchored centers are the strongest performers.

• Retail investment is driven more by population growth than income growth.

• Department store spending has declined sharply, while online and experience-based spending (restaurants, entertainment) continue to rise.

Industrial & Manufacturing

• Industrial remains one of the best-performing sectors, supported by e-commerce and onshoring trends.

• Texas, especially North Texas, faces some oversupply in industrial space.

• Manufacturing investment is growing nationally, with Houston and Texas positioned well in sectors like chemicals, electronics, motor vehicles, and machinery.

Big Picture for 2026

• Expect 2026 to mirror 2025 with solid, steady—not explosive—growth.

• Texas and Houston remain competitive markets but face increasing competition from regions in the Southeast and Midwest, particularly due to more affordable housing in those areas.

Being part of this dynamic community and hearing from leaders like Dr. Oney is energizing. The Texas and Houston commercial real estate market is poised for continued resilience and opportunity as we move through 2026.

We look forward to seeing how these trends unfold and to contributing to Houston’s ongoing growth story.